Researchers predict below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

Fewer storms than usual may develop during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, according to new forecasts from researchers at Colorado State University, who say climate patterns appear to favor slightly below-average activity this year.

The university’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team released its annual hurricane outlook Thursday, estimating that 13 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin. Of those, six are expected to become hurricanes, including two major hurricanes — defined as Category 3 or higher.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between August and October. Another major seasonal forecast is expected next month from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

According to the Colorado State researchers, overall hurricane activity in 2026 is projected to reach about 75 percent of the long-term seasonal average. On average, a hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

If the forecast holds, 2026 would see slightly less activity than the 2025 season, which recorded 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Although no hurricanes made direct landfall in the United States last year — the first such occurrence in a decade — several Caribbean islands experienced significant impacts.

Forecasters estimate a 32 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and a 35 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the Caribbean. Researchers cautioned that even weaker storms can still pose significant threats.

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, who co-authored the forecast.

The reminder comes as the Caribbean continues to reflect on last year’s destructive season. Jamaica, in particular, was devastated by Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a powerful Category 5 storm and brought severe damage before concluding the 2025 hurricane season.

Despite the prediction for fewer storms, experts emphasize that preparedness remains critical, noting that even a below-average season can still bring dangerous and costly impacts to vulnerable regions.