Independent Poll Predicts Dangriga UDP Convention Results

An independent poll conducted ahead of Sunday’s United Democratic Party municipal convention in Dangriga correctly predicted the outcome of the mayoral race and five of the six successful councillor candidates.  Development economist and independent pollster Dr. Philip Castillo has released his evaluation of Castillo Poll Number Three, comparing its findings with the convention’s official results.  The poll estimated that Dwayne Sampson would capture sixty-three-point-eight percent of the mayoral vote, compared to twenty-three-point-four percent for Cristalyn Castillo. Another twelve-point-eight percent of those surveyed were undecided.  Sampson ultimately secured seventy-seven-point-nine percent of the votes, while Castillo received twenty-two-point-one percent. Dr. Castillo believes most of the voters who were undecided at the time of the survey eventually supported Sampson.  The poll was also largely accurate in predicting the UDP’s six councillor nominees. It correctly identified Cindy Fajardo, Elsworth “Vida” Magdaleno, Albourne “Beeze” Marshall, Dayton “Ballal” Sabal and Jamall Swaso as likely winners.  Marsha Mejia, who was not among the poll’s six projected winners, secured the third-highest number of votes and completed the slate. John “Shush” Sabal, who had been projected to win, was unsuccessful.  Dayton Sabal topped the councillor poll with seventy-point-five percent of the votes, followed by Jamall Swaso with sixty-nine-point-six percent. Both received more votes than mayoral candidate Dwayne Sampson.  While the poll performed strongly in predicting the candidates, it underestimated voter turnout. It projected approximately six hundred and ninety-five voters, with a possible range of six hundred and thirty-three to seven hundred and fifty-seven. Actual turnout reached eight hundred and eighty-six.  Dr. Castillo says the higher turnout suggests there was stronger-than-expected enthusiasm and motivation among UDP supporters in Dangriga.  Dr. Castillo says the upcoming Team Sampson-versus-Team Mariano contest may warrant an early poll.