Browne: No one knows what US will do

Mariano Browne - Photo by Faith Ayoung

FORMER minister in the ministry of finance Mariano Browne says it remains to be seen what leverage the US will use in order to pursue its agenda in Venezuela, after its military forces captured and extracted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores from a fortified compound in Caracas around 2 am on January 3.

Browne made this comment in response to a statement by US President Donald Trump repeating on January 5, that the US intends to run Venezuela for the time being and what that may involve.

In an interview with reporters, Trump said, "We are in the business of having countries around us that are viable and successful and where the oil is allowed to freely come out because that's going to get some prices down.He added this would be good for the US.

Before Maduro's capture, Trump repeated claims that Venezuela had stolen oil and assets from the US and the US wanted them back.

At a news conference in Florida on January 3, Trump said American oil companies will be going into Venezuela to fix its "broken infrastructure" and "start making money for the country."

Trump did not explain what that meant.

In a WhatsApp comment, Browne said, "We do not know how this leverage will be enforced or supplemented."

He added in the geopolitical world, politics is difficult to separate from economics.

Browne said the US is Trinidad and Tobago's largest trading partner and the events of January 3, suggest "the issue is not narco trafficking, it is regime change."

The US action in Venezuela, he continued, demonstrates that it does not have the resources for a ground war and that its approach will be asymmetric.

Browne said this means the US will do limited engagements that could give it leverage.

Althought Maduro has been removed from power, his regime remains intact with Venezuelan Vice-President Delcy Rodriguez serving as interim president.

Browne asked what could people expect if all Venezuela's current instruments of state, including the elected officials and the military, remain in place.

"Can we presume that these institutions and its leaders will fall inline with what Washington dictates?"

On January 3, Trump said it was unlikely Rodriguez or any member of Maduro's regime would hold any position of power in Venezuela for long. On the same day, Rodriguez declared Maduro was still Venezuela's legitimate president and his capture was an attrocity. On January 5, after being warned by Trump for those remarks, Rodriguez said, "“We consider it a priority to move towards a balanced and respectful relationship between the US and Venezuela.”

Trump cast doubt on whether exiled Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado would lead or be part of any interim Venezuelan government. Trump said it would be difficult for her to lead Venezuela because "she doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country.”

He added, "We're going to make sure that country is run properly. We're designating people right now and "we're going to let you know who those people are".

Browne said Trump had ordered US military forces to stop "sanctioned oil tankers" from entering Venezuela to put pressure on Maduro.

He added this shows the US objective was not only about regime change in Venezuela.

"The bigger target is China. China depends on imported oil and discounted oil from Venezuela was a key part of its energy strategy."

Browne said, "This raises the stakes in an asymmetric war that will be waged in the financial markets where the US is overextended"

He added, "The issue is not tomorrow but what’s happens to the US and the continued use of the US dollar. This is the continuation of a larger global power shift."

Browne said Maduro's capture also sends a message to other counries in the Western Hemisphere as to whether they face a similar risk if they act in a manner similar to Venezuela.

He noted Trump's previous criticisms of regimes in Colombia and Cuba as an example. On January 5, Trump told reporters, "Colombia is very sick too run by a sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the US and he's not going to be doing it for very long." Trump declined to say whether the US could take similar military action against that nation.

Colombia, which has been critical of the US attack on Venezuela, has deployed troops to its border with Venezuela, to prevent any Venezuelans from fleeing into its territory.